Thursday, September 2, 2010

College Football

I can't believe this blog is still here! Frankly, it was an utter failure before and with good reason I'm sure. But wow...it's kind of like cleaning out your closet and sorting through your old...well...junk. Somehow it's even worse though. Writing with the intent of sharing brings with it a bit of trepidation, and reading what you wrote some time ago...is actually embarrassing frankly. Oh well, I was looking for a better way to do this college football thing than the emails I sent out last year, so this will work. I did change the title at least...and that's exactly what reading any blog feels like sometimes, a complete waste of time that you will never get back, and I have no delusions of mine being any exception. Just keep this in mind though, for an even more spectacular waste of time: try writing one.

OK, back to the college football thing; the season does, after all, start tonight! Last year, some of you expressed disappointment in my tailing off at the end. The truth is that it just became far, far too time consuming to sort through every team's schedule once a good number of games had been played. I could no longer keep up and once I got behind, I was cooked. I do apologize though, if any of you were really waiting anxiously for it. This time I think I have a solution. My spreadsheets this year are ready to go and have been updated so that they should make it far less time consuming this time around. I also have some revisions to last year's ranking system, but we'll sort through that mess as it arises.

Additionally, I've added a new concept to introduce you to this year...beating Vegas. Now, I should make it perfectly clear that I am not much of a gambler. I seldom put my money where my mouth is and with good reason...I generally lose. But for some reason, I've always been fascinated with the Vegas odds. I always hear these prognosticator guys on the radio making boisterous claims of their success rates, and here's the thing: for the most part, I actually believe them. I think that there really are specific nuances to the tactics they use to set these lines and if someone, anyone were to catch on to these trends, they could in theory do very well betting on games. I'm sure I'm nowhere near even comprehending what these involve, but it's fun to try anyway, and there's no harm in it, so long as I or anyone else never puts any actual money on it! But let's start with the rankings. Here's what I wrote in my first email to some of you last year:

"So I have some distinct and specific ideas on how the rankings should be done, particularly if so much is to be decided in the end based on human evaluation, without any regard for human error. There have to be rules. I will therefore come up with new rankings each week based on my own messed up logic, providing my reasons all along. Here is my preseason list with one rationale behind it more than anything else: the same rankings to end the previous season begin the next. It is after all, the only thing that has been settled on the field. Who left where, and who came back, and who recruited who....is purely speculation. The only tangible thing we have is what was seen on the field, and for that, all we can truly resort to is last season. Of course, last season's rankings are also human error susceptible, but should a more objective system be implemented, the problem would right it's self after a season or two, and we don't have the benefit of seeing that without starting from somewhere.Therefore the top 25 from last year's end, and my beginning to this one:"


I'm going to stick with this line of thinking. Now, obviously, had I finished what I started last season, then I would be able to smoothly transition my rankings right over to this season's start. But I didn't, so let's pull up last season's final AP poll and thus present it as my preseason rankings for this season:

1 Alabama
2 Texas
3 Florida
4 Boise State
5 Ohio State
6 TCU
7 Iowa
8 Cincinnati
9 Penn State
10 Virginia Tech
11 Oregon
12 BYU
13 Georgia Tech
14 Nebraska
15 Pittsburgh
16 Wisconsin
17 LSU
18 Utah
19 Miami (FL)
20 Mississippi
21 Texas Tech
22 USC
23 Central Michigan
24 Clemson
25 West Virginia


And finally, the gambling thing. I will get more into how I come up with this stuff in the future, but for now, if I were betting on games this week, these are the teams I would bet on, and based on what my formula reveals to me, how much I would bet on each game:

Utah -3 vs Pittsburgh   $50
Middle Tennessee +2.5 vs Minnesota  $85
FAU +14.5 vs UAB  $230
Western Michigan +23 vs Michigan State $200
Missouri -11.5 vs Illinois  $15
Rice +30.5 vs Texas  $105
Oregon State +13.5 vs TCU  $85
LSU -4 vs North Carolina  $50
Louisiana-Lafayette +28 vs Georgia  $140
Boise State -2.5 vs Virginia Tech  $25

We'll see how I do; enjoy the return of football!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Love it!
Christi

Phillip said...

I'll only be "loving it!" if you make me some money...Lets go Western Michigan!

Kelli said...

Looking forward to how the season will pane out. However, I think you might want to double check your betting odds, especially with UT and UGA. If I'm reading this correctly, I think you're already down $50. Way to go, Utes!

As always, Go Big Red!

D Kyle Burkett said...

Kelli, don't forget FAU!!!